Chrono Trigger; A Better Investment Than Apple

August 23, 1995, the day after Chrono Trigger on Super Nintendo is released you walk into a store and buy it for $69.99. When you get home a new X-Files begins and you put the RPG to the side, forgotten. That same day your dad buys one share of Apple stock for a split-adjusted $11.38, and one share of Microsoft for $6.12.

Fast forward to February 3, 2008. Your old man's share in Apple is worth $133.75 and Microsoft, $30.45. That same day you find your sealed copy of Chrono Trigger in an old storage box and decide to look online to see how much its worth. Turns out your copy of Chrono Trigger sells for $1,217. The game gave you a 25.7% annual rate of return, much better than your dad's 22.0% return with Apple and 13.6% return with Microsoft!




Considerations when buying video games as an investment:

• The game has to stay sealed for it to keep its value. The Chrono Trigger cartridge only sells for $50-60 by itself.
• If you keep the game sealed you can't play it. Stock certificates aren't much fun to play with though so the alternative isn't much better.
• Video game prices are very wide ranging, not all of them are Chrono Trigger's. Many sell for only a few bucks. A sealed Metal Gear for NES recently sold for $86. A 2.8% annual return, which is barely more than inflation.
• You have to store the games in a safe place so you still have them after 12 years. You don't want your game collection to share the fate of so many baseball card collections - thrown out by mom when you go to college (why mom? why?)

UPDATE
There seems to be some confusion about the prices and adjusting them for stock splits. The prices used in the analysis do take into account stock splits for Apple and Microsoft. Apple was trading at $45.50 on 8/23/95, but they had 2 stock splits between then and now so the price used in the analysis is $11.38 ($45.50 divided by 4).

Microsoft is the same. It was trading at $97.88 on 8/23/95 but the stock split 4 times. So the price used in the analysis is $6.12 ($97.88 divided by 16).

I hope this clears up any confusion. Sorry I didn't make this clearer in the initial write-up.

Historic stock prices from Marketwatch.com. Inflation numbers provided by InflationData.com. Rates of return calculated using this annual rate of return calculator.

How To Make Money Collecting PS2 Games

The Playstation 2 will have been on the market for 8 years this October. Two of those years the PS2 has shared the market with the Playstation 3 and though the Playstation 2 is selling fairly well now, it is approaching its final years. Developer support is already drying up. In 2007, 153 games were released and so far about 90 games are announced or rumored to be released in 2008. So now is the time to buy Playstation 2 games and potentially make some money.

Let me explain what I mean. The later in a console's life cycle a game is released, the more likely it is to become rare and very expensive. Of the 60 most expensive NES, SNES, and N64 games, 32 of them were released in the last two years of the console, 53%. This is even more amazing when you consider there are not many games published in the last two years of a console. The NES, SNES, and N64 had a total of 1,947 games. 20% of them, 388 games, came out in the last two years. So the last two years of a console represent 20% of the total games, but 53% of the most expensive games.

System	Total Games	Last 2 Years	% of Games
NES	810	139	17.2%
SNES	750	173	23.1%
N64	387	76	19.6%

You see the trend and now you want to know how much some of those expensive games are actually worth. Many of them sell for about $30-40 used which is less than the original price. But when kept sealed some of the games are worth a ton. Chrono Trigger recently sold for $1,217, Zelda II for NES (not a rare game) sold for $799, and Super Mario RPG sold for $315. Even easy to find NES games are expensive if they are sealed. This ad shows a company is willing to pay $250 for Zelda and $200 for Excitebike.

So which Playstation 2 Games should you buy if you want to increase the chance they will be collector's items? RPG and Fighting games keep their value longer than other genres' so buying RPG and Fighting games gives you the best odds of buying the next Chrono Trigger. Here are my recommendations for some games that I think might be good choices:

Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al-Revis

This is a niche RPG published by NIS America. They are also the developers of Disgaea Hour of Darkness, one of the more expensive PS2 games already released.

Arcana Heart

A 2D Fighter developed by Atlus. 2D Fighting games are not as popular as they used to be back in the Street Fighter heyday so don't look for this one to sell many copies. Plus, Atlus is notorious for small printings of their games.

Baroque

Baroque is another Atlus game, this time an RPG though. As a publisher, Atlus games keep their value better than any other publisher. Buying their games is just another way of increasing the odds a game becomes valuable.

Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 FES

The last Atlus game on the list. I hope I'm not putting too many of my eggs in one basket but Atlus is the publisher of the Ogre Battle series which places a game in the most expensive list for N64, SNES, and PS1. And the other games in the Persona series are expensive too.

Chaos Wars

Chaos Wars is a fantasy, turn based strategy game. That is about as niche as you can get. The game is developed by Idea Factory who has released games only in Japan up to this point. They are virtually an unknown in the US.

King of Fighters Collection: The Orochi Saga

A collection of the SNK King of Fighters games. It is a 2D fighting series with a decent following, but will probably not sell that well. Compilation games can be worth quite a bit too. The Spyro and GTA Trilogy collections prove this.

Samurai Shodown Anthology

Another collection of 2D fighting games, this time from the Samurai Shodown series. Not as popular as the King of Fighters series, but some of the games so far have kept their value well.

Keep in mind many of the PS2 games coming out in the next two years have not even been announced so this list is in no way conclusive. And I could be completely wrong about them too. The above games might be worthless in a couple of years but based upon this information; I'm going to pre-order a few of these, set them aside, and wait.

Below is the table of the most expensive games on each console and the year they were released. The bolded titles are the ones released in the last two years.

Expensive Nintendo NES Games	Release Year
Bubble Bobble Part 2	1993
Little Samson	1992
Dragon Warrior IV	1992
Snow Brothers	1991
Fire 'N Ice	1993
Dusty Diamond All-Star Softball	1990
California Raisins	1991
Bandit Kings of Ancient China	1989
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Tournament Fighters	1993
Duck Tales 2	1993
Bonk's Adventure	1993
Contra Force	1992
RC Pro-AM II	1992
Mario Time Machine	1993
L'Empereur	1991
Ultima Warriors of Destiny	1993
Bomberman II	1991
Faria	1989
Dragon Warrior III	1988
Princess Tomato in the Salad Kingdom	1988
Expensive Super Nintendo Games	Release Year
Earthbound	1994
Ogre Battle The March of the Black Queen	1994
Ninja Gaiden Trilogy	1995
Castlevania Dracula X	1995
Harvest Moon	1996
EVO the Search for Eden	1993
Chrono Trigger	1995
Mega Man X	1993
Aero Fighters	1993
Super Mario RPG	1996
Lufia and the Fortress of Doom	1993
Lufia and The Rise of Sinistrals	1996
Secret of Mana	1993
Metal Marines	1993
Final Fantasy III	1994
Final Fight 3	1995
Metal Warriors	1995
Mega Man 7	1995
Uncharted Waters: New Horizons	1994
Boogerman A Pick and Flick Adventure	1995
Expensive Nintendo 64 Games	Release Year
Worms Armageddon	2000
Clay Fighter 63 1/3 Sculptor's Cut	1998
Ogre Battle	1999
Harvest Moon	1999
Mario Party 3	2000
Bomberman 64 The Second Attack	2000
Conker's Bad Fur Day	2001
Super Smash Bros.	1999
Starcraft	2000
Super Bowling	2000
Castlevania Legacy of Darkness	1999
Mario Kart 64	1996
Mario Party 2	1999
Mario Party	1998
Space Station Silicon Valley	1998
Ms. PacMan Maze Madness	2000
Dr. Mario	2001
Paper Mario	2000
Tom and Jerry	2000
Beast Wars	2000

All release dates information provided by digitpress and mobygames